Welcome to the 2025 edition of Patrick’s Real Estate Newsletter! In this issue, we reflect on the past year, share insights into the local housing market, and provide valuable tips for homeowners and buyers in Red Deer, Alberta.
Reflecting on 2024.
The 2024 real estate market in Red Deer demonstrated remarkable resilience despite some challenges. Interest rates were a dominant topic, significantly shaping market activity and consumer behaviour. Yet, our community’s strong sense of connection and ongoing economic growth played a vital role in stabilizing the housing market and maintaining optimism.
General Insights.
Total Sales Comparison:
- 2024 total sales: 1,820
- 2023 total sales: 1,842
There was a slight decline in overall sales, indicating a stable but slightly slower market.
Peak Months: April, May and June
consistently show the highest sales
for 2023 and 2024, making spring the
most active season.
Slower Months: January, February, and December show lower activity, which is typical for winter months in the real estate market.
Optimal Selling Window:
Spring and early summer (April to June) are the best times to list a home, as this period shows the highest demand based on sales activity.
Sellers should prepare their homes during the winter months to capitalize on spring activity.
Market Highlights
The past year revealed several key trends in Red Deer’s real estate market:
- Steady Growth:
- The market experienced consistent growth, with moderate increases in
average home prices.
- The market experienced consistent growth, with moderate increases in
- Buyer Trends:
- First-time homebuyers became more active, supported by the government
incentives and a gradual improvement in housing inventory.
- First-time homebuyers became more active, supported by the government
- Seller Success:
- Homes that were well-prepared and marketed effectively attracted strong
offers, emphasizing the importance of preparation and strategic marketing.
- Homes that were well-prepared and marketed effectively attracted strong
Over the past 10 years, single-family homes in Red Deer have been appreciated by $67,805 (17.76%)! Key Stats You Need to Know:
💰 Biggest Year of Growth: 2024 (+$39,094, +9.52%)
📉 Toughest Year: 2016 (-$17,242, -4.51%)
💡
The market shows resilience and strong demand, with consistent growth since 2020.
Sellers: It’s a great time to list your property and capitalize on these trends.
Buyers: Stay informed to find the best opportunities in this market
Community Insights
Each community in Central Alberta has benefited from the improved economy. Reviewing our slides below you'll note some similarities as well as some unique differences. See the comparisons below for January 1 - December 31, 2024:
Red Deer led the way with sales and listings as one would expect due to the population size of the community.
| Sales | New Listings | |
| Sylvan Lake | 290 | 368 |
| Red Deer | 1,111 | 1,420 |
| Lacombe | 175 | 219 |
| Blackfalds | 186 | 232 |
| Penhold | 53 | 58 |
| Innisfail | 119 | 131 |
The most affordable house price was reported by Innisfail with an average of $355,517. Meanwhile, Sylvan Lake has the highest average sale price of a house with $462,945 for a home.
- Penhold $400,231
- Innisfail $355,517
- Lacombe $432,273
- Blackfalds $429,441
- Red Deer $449,696
- Sylvan Lake $462,945
Will The Red Deer Real Estate Market Continue It's Hot Trend This Summer?
The real estate market in 2024 continues the positive trend we’ve seen in the last couple of years. Then this spring it was a kick-it-up-a-notch dynamic. The demand for Red Deer real estate hit a frenzied level this spring. If you were searching for a home you may have experienced the race to the door followed by a bidding war to secure the home.
This is certainly an uncomfortable dynamic for buyers. It causes a lot of stress and anxiety as buyers often feel rushed into a decision, or feel compelled to strengthen their offer by eliminating conditions.
Conversely, sellers were loving the new dynamic. In the past, sellers may have felt like they had to give away more than they wanted to and were exhausted by how long the process was. This spring we’ve seen a dynamic more similar to 2006 and 2007. Rising prices, and homes that need a little extra maintenance, new shingles, paint, or are worn out from tenants occupying don’t matter as much to get a sold sign.
Now don’t get me wrong. Completing those to-do list items helps. The difference this season is more money in your pocket. Compared to previous years where it was a necessity to get your home sold.
What was/is the cause of this heated market? A lot of factors are at play that have led to the heated real estate market. I’m no economist, but I do know that there was very little supply of homes for sale and an abundance of demand (buyers). The million-dollar question is, where are all the buyers coming from, and why?
Did you know that May recorded the highest average sale price for a house in Red Deer? The average price of a house (single detached home) reached $479,995. Year to date the average is sitting at $451,196.
Is the ride over?
No, not at all. The ride is just slowing down a little.
We experienced a typical spring market. Where for sale signs started popping up faster than dandelions. Now that summer is here, it's normal that we experience a slower pace. We can expect that we still have a strong summer, but not at the same hectic pace experienced in April & May. June sales volume was still robust, and slightly below 2023 June's level by 4.4%. Year To Date, sales still exceed previous years.
Red Deer Housing Market Update: Boom or Bust?
The data in the slide shows real estate sales in Red Deer, Alberta from January 1 to February 29, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023 and 2022. Here are some specific details:
- There were 200 sales in 2024 which is 2% more than the 196 sales in 2023.
- There were 503 active listings on February 29, 2024. This is 362 fewer listings than the 865 active listings in February 2022.
- There were 370 new listings reported in January and February of 2024.
It is important to note that this data only represents two months and may not indicate a long-term trend.
Do you have other questions about the real estate market in Red Deer?
This graph from Century 21 Advantage shows the number of detached homes sold in Red Deer between January 1st and February 29th, 2024, along with new listings that came on the market during the same period.
There were 118 detached homes sold on the MLS® in Red Deer during the first two months of 2024. The most common price range for these homes was between $400,000 and $500,000, with thirty-six homes being sold in that range. There were twenty-five homes sold in the $350,000 to $400,000 price range, and twenty-three homes sold in the $300,000 to $350,000 price range.
It is important to note that this is just a small snapshot of the Red Deer real estate market. The market can fluctuate from month to month, and many other factors can affect the price of a home, such as location, size, and condition.
If you are thinking about buying or selling a detached home in Red Deer, it is important to consult with a qualified real estate agent. They can help you understand the current market conditions and find a home that meets your needs.
If you'd like to book a private open on one consultation please fee free to reach out to Patrick Galesloot at 825-251-8730
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Happy New Year! Is 2024 your year to make a move?
We can expect more of the same in 2024. This means 2024 is a year to move.
We finished the year with a similar trend that was happening in 2022. 2023 saw Red Deer and the area have low inventory levels, strong sale price to listing price, and in some cases price growth. The market was also decidedly different in homes above $500,000. Most likely influenced by the higher cost of borrowing.
Fortunately, 2024 is starting with rate holds, and the immediate forecast is the Bank of Canada will hold the rate further with declines.
Did you know that in 2023 Red Deer real estate sales recorded the 4th highest sales volume of the last 10 years?
The Supply And Demand of Real Estate:
Sales volume in Red Deer and the area followed similar trends. Most communities have sales that closely follow the new listing volume. The tight supply and demand for real estate was a benefit to most sellers. Buyers were feeling the stress of finding something with time to process and evaluate being a premium commodity. 2023 saw an abundance of tenant-occupied homes for sale. The market was beneficial for quirky or tired homes, and those that generally might be a little thought to sell because of the wear & tear or needs of the home. As a result, we had many landlords that opted to change their portfolios.
2023 had softer volumes compared to 2022. The rate increases that began in 2022 slowing down the real estate market.
The Bank of Canada interest rates are:
| Date* | Target (%) | Change (%) |
| December 6, 2023 | 5 | --- |
| October 25, 2023 | 5 | --- |
| September 6, 2023 | 5 | --- |
| July 12, 2023 | 5 | 0.25 |
| June 7, 2023 | 4.75 | 0.25 |
| April 12, 2023 | 4.5 | --- |
| March 8, 2023 | 4.5 | --- |
| January 25, 2023 | 4.5 | 0.25 |
| December 7, 2022 | 4.25 | 0.5 |
| October 26, 2022 | 3.75 | 0.5 |
| September 7, 2022 | 3.25 | 0.75 |
| July 13, 2022 | 2.5 | 1 |
Sales By Price Range, The Impact of Interest Rates:
The impact on interest rate increases had a notable impact on house sales above $500,000.
Seasonal Flow:
The seasonal flow of sales echoed the trend of 2022 but seemed to ramp up late in the season when compared to 2022. The quietest months for real estate are usually December and January. Not that moving during -20º or-30ºC is all that desirable. Throw in the fact that we all bought presents and travelled to visit friends and family for a week or two for Christmas, it's pretty easy to see that these two months are sleepy by comparison.
Knowing that lending rates have plateaued, and may decline in the spring, are you planning on buying or selling this year?
Don't Buy Red Deer Real Estate Until You Read This...
Are you still waiting for prices to drop? Stop it! Trying to "time" the market is a terrible idea. It rarely works out that way. Check this out...
The most recent low point for "average" home sale prices was April 2020 $321,104. If you put your memory banks to work, that was peak "COVID-19" closures, where no one knew what the heck was going on and if anyone would work again. Then we've had a steady climb until January 2023 when the average price dipped to $347,922.
A further reflection of interest rates and the belief that "interest rates should push prices down". Yes, they should, because it decreases buying power. However, the defining metric for if prices are strong, sliding or growing is by far "supply & demand". Until there is a shift in the supply & demand equation I wouldn't expect a large annual change in sale prices. Here is the 10-year graph for average house prices.
Despite 2 years of rising interest rates, sales have continued to happen, and the average closing price has gradually risen. Thanks in large part to supply and demand. So what doe that look like...
The solid black lines are the "sales" volume for that price range, and the gold-coloured lines are the listings that came on the market. In a nutshell, the demand for a house in Red Deer is strong.
When we look at all residential property types by community, the supply and demand ratio differs, but the demand for housing has remained strong all year. WIth the most recent interest rate announcement, holding interest rates, we expect that demand for housing in Red Deer and surrounding communities to remain quite positive until there is an economic slowdown for the area and province.
Should You wait to buy a home?
The most important factor is the affordability of monthly living. If you desire homeownership, then your day-to-day finances and rent payments or your current mortgage payments may change with your purchase. Historically Housing prices have risen. Yes, there are moments in time when house prices have fallen, but ever since I've been a home owner, and my parents have been home owners, and their parents etc. prices have gradually risen. Homeownership is a long-term investment. If you plan to live in a house for 20, 30, 40 or 50 years then what are you waiting for?
Fall 2023 Real Estate Market Update
Each community in Central Alberta has benefited from the improved economy. Reviewing our slides below you'll note some similarities as well as some unique differences. See the comparisons below for January 1 - October 31st, 2023:
Red Deer led the way with sales and listings as one would expect due to the population size of the community.
The smaller communities have a tighter supply and demand ratio. This dynamic is helping to hold prices and in some cases, we're seeing stronger price growth.
Sales volume at the end of October for Red Deer was reported as 1,621. Followed by Sylvan Lake at 412, Blackfalds at 237, Lacombe at 221, Innisfail at 141 and Penhold with 83 sales ytd.
All the communities report positive trends, particularly around the average price points.
Red Deer Real Estate in 2023:
2023 has been a robust year for Red Deer's real estate market. However, the lack of options for buyers to select from due to the economy and interest rates is making it more expensive to buy a home. Nonetheless, sales volume has remained positive, with overall sales volume for Red Deer real estate only down 10% from 2022. You can see in the chart that we started the year lagging 2022, and then had a hot summer. The high sales and low inventory dynamic are usually ideal for selling tenant-occupied homes, and those homes with unique or quirky characteristics that make them hard to sell in buyers' markets.
If it's so strong, why am I seeing houses sitting on the market in my area?
The YTD average closing price for ALL property types is currently at $340,567. For Single-family detached homes, it is $411,858. Certainly, by looking at where the sales and listings are in the chart to the left, we can see that the $500,000 remains an affordability barrier. That price point and higher is a significantly quieter price point. Today’s posted interest rates of 6.5-7% are having a direct impact on higher price points. Buyers qualifying today have to qualify with the addition of a 2% points stress test. i.e. moving that qualifying rate to 8-9%.
How much is a house nowadays?
Depending on where you want to live, there are some more communities with lower pricing. Usually, a direct relation to distance from the larger centers such as Red Deer. Sylvan Lake leads the way with the highest average sale price of a house with $421,912 YTD for a home.
- Red Deer $411,858
- Blackfalds $390,760
- Lacombe $384,656
- Sylvan Lake $421,912
- Penhold $377,877
- Innisfail $344,216
2023 Red Deer Real Estate Update
Welcome to the world of real estate in Red Deer, where the market is always buzzing with activity!
The graphic you're looking at shows the sales volume for Red Deer's real estate market over the last few years, and it's quite interesting to see how the numbers have fluctuated.
The sales volume has been steadily increasing since 2017, which is great news for sellers as it indicates a healthy real estate market. In fact, the sales volume in 2022 was almost double what it was in 2017, which is an impressive feat, given the challenges posed by the pandemic. This increase in sales volume could be attributed to several factors, such as low-interest rates, a growing population, and an overall healthy economy in Red Deer.
The number of unit sales in 2023 is down from 2022, but is the 4th highest in the last 10 years, and is above the 10-year average. Above average is a positive healthy indicator of the overall real estate market.
Overall, the real estate market in Red Deer seems to be in good shape, and this graphic gives you a great overview of the sales volume trends over the years. Whether you're a buyer or a seller, this information can help you make informed decisions about the real estate market in Red Deer.
The sales of higher-priced homes are always lower in unit volume. The sweet spot is the middle zone, which is a wide robust price range.
Red Deer continues to lead the way with real estate activity, due to the size of its population, and the variety of properties & property types.
WHat is significantly unique this year, is the difference in supply and demand in the smaller communities. Typically a smaller community, such as Innisfail would have a greater disparity of listings to sale. This year, there is a very little gap. Which one could interpret as being th e"hotter" community.
January Red Deer Real Estate Market Update, 2023
January 2023 brings more change into the Red Deer real estate market.
Sales this year have been lagging in comparison to the sales volume we experienced in 2022, and 2021. Definitely influenced by the mortgage rate changes of the past several months. The changes in affordability and budget levels established by mortgage rates have added some uncertainty as buyers adjust.
If you've owned a home for 15 years, or more then you've probably experienced today's 5% interest rate level and felt confident that 5% was a "good" rate. Today it is a game changer for many. Increasing from 2% to 5% has put some plans on hold and established lower purchasing power.
However, January was not ALL bad. It was actually quite strong. To add a little context, January 2022, and 2021 were well above average bench setting high marks for sales volume in January. The 10-year average for Residential Sales Volume is presently 86. So 2023, was "above average".
| Year: | January_Sales: | %Change |
| 2014 | 104 | |
| 2015 | 75 | -28% |
| 2016 | 71 | -5% |
| 2017 | 66 | -7% |
| 2018 | 88 | 33% |
| 2019 | 75 | -15% |
| 2020 | 69 | -8% |
| 2021 | 100 | 45% |
| 2022 | 125 | 25% |
| 2023 | 92 | -26% |
January is not necessarily reflective of how the rest of the year will unfold. It does tell us what the market is shaping up to look like now though. A 26% decrease in sales volume does make one pause and ponder about what the year will look like.
Seasonal Trend of 2022 Shifting in 2023
Sales and listing volume were considerably low at the end of 2022. The listing inventory count declined in November and December, however, bounced back to a certain extent in January. The supply and demand equation is shifting. It is important to have a close look at the pricing and volume for homes like yours, in an area where you live, otherwise, you run the risk of being "for sale" for extended periods of time.
2022 Summer Market Update, July Edition
The Red Deer real estate market remains strong and follows a seasonal trend. Despite the increases in interest rates the overall residential real estate sales volume continues to outperform previous years.
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